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Dropping odds – story of its own

Posted by Tomáš Molnár

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Any slightly experienced bettor can see odds dropping. Sometimes with clear reason (missing an important player) and sometimes because of *black magic*. Especially second case causes often poor judgements and eventually, wrong decisions. Dropping an odd has always its logical cause.

In this article we will focus on this phenomenon and we will demonstrate a few real life cases related to it.

Pre-match drop

 

When the game is not yet live, there can be different reasons for odds to drop.

  1. Wrong early odds – it is quite normal that odds are sometimes released 1 month in advance (for example Bundesliga after a winter break). Depending on cups and friendlies and of course injuries, odds must be realistically adjusted. The sooner an odd is published, the more often is closing odd further off from first one.
  2. Market influence – too many players betting on underdogs means huge risk for bookmakers that they are not aware of something. This act is sometimes by purpose initiated by some large betting forums to wait for odds on a favorite to rise and then back them to make larger profit. So, if odds on underdogs are dropping, logically, favorite’s odds must go up. Examples can be found all over the internet – large amount of betting sites selling their tips and then sites aggregating those ‘paid’ tips. After all, pro punters are investors, they try tricks too – when price gets interesting, then they buy. Examples can be found most often in less known competitions, like Finnish or Malaysian ones.
  3. Teasing to bet on favorites
    1. Underdogs´ odds dropping – just to give bettors a reason to make a bet on favorite because their odds are getting higher – like a campaign from bookmaker. Often bets are limited to amount of stakes or must be part of a combination.
    2. Favorites’ odds dropping – for some events where clearly everyone is nearly sure that the favorite is going to win, bookmakers lower the odds. It is like selling food to a hungry guy – he is willing to pay more than usual, just to get his food. It is the same with such games, bettors just want to bet on favorite, regardless of odds. An example from tennis: If Djokovic is playing some ordinary guy, millions of euros are still bet even with odds as of 1.05!

 

In-match odds dropping

 

Why do we have to read this post separated on pre-match and in-match/live part? It is all about the nature of the market. A lot of players are trying live betting nowadays. After all, there is much more potential and value – you can see and feel how match is going aaaaand: Bookies are trying tricks on less educated players to generate instant profits!

Yes, you have read it right. There are quite often odds dropping live just to stimulate some lazy players to bet on those events. All because human logic would suggest that surely there must be something wrong with the game.

It is just an easy trick quite often to be seen and but despite this fact, for a human it is very hard to evaluate real chance of such live event.

In live betting regular bettor is online with single device and single bookie (mobile traffic is majority of whole www traffic and mobiles have some limitations especially because of screen and usability). Coming back to point, when bettor is online, he has nearly no time/willingness to compare odds at different bookies and he cannot be sure that this offer will be valid in a minute or two. Some events are by purpose dropping the odds every minute/two just to point the promo out!

Wrap-up

 

To sum everything up, there is need to say that odds can drop because the reality changed or they do drop because someone is pretending reality has changed. Latter one creates room to make a profit – sometimes to bookmaker and sometimes to bettor. It is up to you if you are interested in hunting the bookmaker’s tricks or not. Good luck!

 

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