Category Posts Navigation

Explaining the odds

Posted by Tomáš Molnár


When it comes to betting, every bettor is wise man. “I will back Southampton in next home match”, could one say. After answering the questions: “What are the odds?” with “They say 1.5” and “How confident are you?” with “60 percent!” – something is wrong with a lad.

Question: How odds and likelihood of some event to occur are linked?

Answer: Odd = 1 / probability

Probability Odd Probability Odd
10% 10 60% 1.67
20% 5 70% 1.43
30% 3.33 80% 1.25
40% 2.5 90% 1.11
50% 2 100% 1

Table is interesting, but let’s see where common misinterpretation of odds lies – in a neat chart.

Explaining the odds

As you can see, dependency of odds on probability is rather asymptotic, but ordinary user thinks more about nearly linearly decreasing.

Therefore often:

–          User thinks if Real Madrid’s odds drops from 1.4 to 1.2 it is the same as if 1.6 would have dropped to 1.4. WRONG.

–          Some users thinks in this way: if I am sure about some team winning, odds are below some range, e.g. 1.5 otherwise it is not that sure. WRONG. There is nothing like black or white in world of betting.


We are open to guest bloggers and we are also willing to publish our content on your blog so don’t hesitate to get in touch! In case of any question, hit me a message:

facebooktwittergoogle_pluslinkedinby feather