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Explaining the odds | Helping tipsters succeed!
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Explaining the odds

Posted by Tomáš Molnár

Odds_Board_Opening_Day_in_the_Rain_Saratoga_Racetrack_NY_8392_(4853584445)

When it comes to betting, every bettor is wise man. “I will back Southampton in next home match”, could one say. After answering the questions: “What are the odds?” with “They say 1.5” and “How confident are you?” with “60 percent!” – something is wrong with a lad.

Question: How odds and likelihood of some event to occur are linked?

Answer: Odd = 1 / probability

Probability Odd Probability Odd
10% 10 60% 1.67
20% 5 70% 1.43
30% 3.33 80% 1.25
40% 2.5 90% 1.11
50% 2 100% 1

Table is interesting, but let’s see where common misinterpretation of odds lies – in a neat chart.

Explaining the odds

As you can see, dependency of odds on probability is rather asymptotic, but ordinary user thinks more about nearly linearly decreasing.

Therefore often:

–          User thinks if Real Madrid’s odds drops from 1.4 to 1.2 it is the same as if 1.6 would have dropped to 1.4. WRONG.

–          Some users thinks in this way: if I am sure about some team winning, odds are below some range, e.g. 1.5 otherwise it is not that sure. WRONG. There is nothing like black or white in world of betting.

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